“We are headed towards universal access (to stock trading) that makes multiple listings obsolete,” said Diego Perfumo , analyst at Equity Research Desk, an advisory firm specializing in exchanges. ‘NYSE Euronext provides Thomson the European and U.S. listings, Canada is maintained to honor its origin.’
“Brazil has a very interesting macro story, and this is a commodities-based exchange, which makes it a great hedge against global inflation,” says Bernardo Mariano of Equity Research Desk, a New York research company specialising in exchanges. “Add to that that they are just implementing direct market access and co-location, and this will help it expand very significantly.”
A taxa punitiva, segundo o analista Bernardo Mariano, da empresa de análise americana Equity Research Desk, representa um problema sobretudo para os algotraders. "Em média, um algotrader fecha apenas 10% das ordens que ele coloca. Ou seja, eles geram muito mais ofertas que os demais investidores, e por isso são os maiores penalizados pela taxa punitiva", explicou.
Mariano disse que, entre as 10 maiores bolsas do mundo por valor de mercado, a BM&FBovespa é a última a oferecer o serviço de co-location. "Todas as grandes, como a Nyse Euronext, a Nasdaq, a ICE e a Deutsche Börse já oferecem o serviço para os algotraders. A BM&Fbovespa é a última das grandes", afirmou.(Lucia Kassai)
De acordo com Bernardo Mariano, da Equity Research Desk, empresa especializada na análise de ações de bolsas, os problemas enfrentados pela BM&FBovespa estão em linha com o que acontece no resto do mundo. "A BM&FBovespa tem uma das mais modernas plataformas eletrônicas de derivativos no mundo. Acredito que os problemas são localizados e não estão relacionados a uma sobrecarga", disse.
“Direct Edge has benefited from the consolidation of broker-dealers over the past year” said Diego Perfumo, an exchange analyst with Equity Research Desk. “Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos., investors have concentrated orders among fewer dealers, including Direct Edge shareholders Knight Capital Group Inc., Citadel Derivatives Group and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”Mr. Perfumo said.
“Bolsa Mexicana has fallen behind Brazil’s BM&FBovespa SA, the region’s largest stock exchange, in share sales as Mexican companies shun public listing requirements and its trading technology lags peers”, said Bernardo Mariano, an analyst covering exchanges at Equity Research Desk LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. “Mexico had five initial public offerings since the start of 2007, compared with 68 in Brazil. Tellez’s “challenge is to bring more companies to the market,” Mariano said. “He needs to make Mexico, like Brazil, a credible market where people are willing to list.”
“A joint venture combining derivatives and clearing businesses might make more sense than a full-scale merger” said Diego Perfumo, an analyst with Equity Research Desk, who drew comparisons to a similar deal between the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before their 2007 merger.
“There is no rationale in a merger because it would load Deutsche Boerse with deteriorating businesses from U.S. and European cash equities,” said Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges.
Equity Research Desk, an advisory firm focused on exchanges, noted annual industry "friction costs" will jump by $1.2 billion based on data from the volatile fourth quarter. “U.S. equity volumes could decline by 15 percent this year and may be even more pronounced if the current volatility, driven by overall uncertainty, settles down” said ERD analyst Bernardo Mariano. "They put in an order when they see an opportunity," Mariano said of the highly active traders. "But if now the costs are doubled, they'll see less opportunity and they'll reduce dramatically the number of orders in the market."
“Commissions coming in at over a million (dollars) is very positive, particularly with December so weak,”said Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk.
NYSE has maintained a 25% to 27.5% market share in Tape A securities over the last three months, according to a report from Equity Research Desk. For January, NYSE claimed 26% of Tape A transactions, with Arca counting about 15.6%; Nasdaq OMX's Tape A share came in at 20.4%.
BIDS, which services 33 buy-siders as well as sell-siders, "is the competitive response from the brokers," said Diego Perfumo,analyst at Equity Research Desk. With NYBX, "BIDS combines the neutrality of the NYSE and a cartel of committed broker dealer owners that would guarantee the liquidity," Perfumo said.
“The 3.3 million in interest-rate futures traded daily through the CME Group could halve to 1.75 million”, according to a report by Diego Perfumo, an analyst for the Equity Research Desk.
Bernardo Mariano, an analyst at Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Connecticut, said the acquisition would also help the WSE attract more attention to its local market. “A major exchange could help the WSE to develop new products, especially in the derivatives market, because they are at a much more advanced stage and know how to implement these products through the use of market makers. They could also present the potential alliances to the WSE,” Mariano said. Mariano said that although in some cases a takeover by a major exchange can produce benefits, in other cases it could limit the smaller exchange’s options and future growth. “A strategic investor could also, for example, help the exchange to develop the right infrastructure technology, global distribution and strategic alliances and then
“The outlook for exchanges and their stock prices in 2009 will be influenced by regulatory reforms and the solvency of banks, which rank among their large customers”, a research report by Greenwich, Conn., consultancy Equity Research Desk said today. (…) In his weekly sector commentary, ERD analyst Diego Perfumo wrote that the main reason why trading volumes are weakening is banks’ reluctance to take more positions that bear more risk. “Volumes across exchanges are very weak as banks have reduced their value-at-risk (VaR),” Mr. Perfumo wrote, noting that “VaR is ultimately tied to the capitalization of the bank.” The ERD report noted that the outlook for the exchanges, whose share price was down 68% on a weighted average in 2008, will depend on several bank-related factors: • Asset classes that suffer the most from the ongoing deleveraging and risk aversion are interest rates in general and Eurodollars — the CME’s flagship contract — in particular, which banks use to hedge their OTC interest rate swaps; • Energy futures have a better outlook than OTC energy markets because commercial players, such as oil companies Exxon Mobil Corp., Fairfax, Va., or Royal Dutch Shell PLC, The Hague, the Netherlands, are active players who access the market directly. “A comparison of the exchange price/earnings ratio relative to its domestic index price/earnings ratio provides insights on the short-term price of each exchange,” Mr. Perfumo wrote.
Bernardo Mariano, an analyst at Equity Research Desk, an investment advisory firm in Greenwich, Conn., doesn't think the new unsponsored ADRs will build a lot of liquidity. "These are tailor-made ADRs for special needs," Mariano said. "There will be more trading, but not significantly more trading."He added that a limited number of investors buy securities traded on the Pinks or gray market.”
“Central clearing forces full disclosure of all positions from all participants at every single point in time, and liquidates positions before the loss becomes unbearable,” said analyst Diego Perfumo at Greenwich, Conn., research firm Equity Research Desk, which specializes in the exchange sector. “If OTC markets are forced to shift onto exchanges, (contract) standardization and centralized clearing are expected to reduce the notional outstanding of these markets by a factor of five in interest rate swaps and by a factor of 10 in CDS,” Mr. Perfumo predicted.
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges, said that “if Nasdaq can attract a quarter of the available market share, clearing revenue could boost the company's per-share earnings this year by 70 cents, or 33 percent”. "There are assumptions made to get there, but the growth could be substantial," Perfumo told Reuters. "They're clearing existing products that the market is currently trading."
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges, said NASDAQ is trying to preempt the competition. "Although it is behind CME and ICE in derivatives, being first to market may give them a chance to gain some early liquidity, said Perfumo, referring to derivative giants CME and IntercontinentalExchange "They still need the support of the users to fund the clearinghouse. But as the first, they may get liquidity early in the process," he said.
“One of those alternative trading systems, Pure Trading, benefited from the exchange's troubles”, according to data compiled by Bernardo Mariano of Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges. “Pure Trading's volume on Wednesday was 38.5 million shares, more than triple its five-day average, Mariano said. have more broadened alternatives in two to four years from now, when the exchange has a higher valuation,” Mariano said.
Diego Perfumo of Equity Research Desk, an independent firm that analyzes exchanges, examines cues like banks' declining market caps and their waning capacity for risk to gauge the size of the potential slump. His estimate: Outstanding Eurodollar contracts that trade at the CME could conceivably shrink 51%, toward 2003 levels, unless banks are further capitalized. Good thing banks are at the head of the receiving line for government bailouts. Trading accounts for the bulk of gross revenues, but once you strip out fees collected on behalf of regulators, routing and clearing charges, and rebates to liquidity providers, just 25% of the NYSE's $685 million in first-half net revenue is tied to trading, says Perfumo of Equity Research Desk. "The rest comes from listings and data, which are annuity-like businesses." Similarly, only a quarter of the Nasdaq's net revenue is tied to trading.
Diego Perfumo of Equity Research Desk, a trading and exchanges consultancy in New York, said: "There are increasing concerns among investors on further volume declines." A combination of the Börse and NYSE Euronext would pave the way for the creation of a seamless clearing mechanism on both sides of the Atlantic. Mr Perfumo said any deal "would position the combined entity as the likely winner of the OTC market as regulators force it onto exchange".
"The regulatory push to bring OTC contracts on to exchanges could trigger another round of consolidation," said Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges. "In order to address this, you need muscle."
“Automated trading could be declining because quant funds, which trade based on complex statistical models, are deleveraging as the overall market tumbles”, said Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges.
“The flip side is that such a move could intensify the slide in trading of Eurodollar futures at CME,” according to Equity Research Desk analyst Diego Perfumo. “Eurodollars' usefulness as hedging tools for OTC products like interest rate swaps could decline if investors are able to trade such swaps on exchanges,” he said. Perfumo, who is preparing a report on the Eurodollar market, said that dealer banks are the main traders of Eurodollars, using the contracts to hedge customers' over-the-counter interest rate swap positions. To measure banks' activity in the market, he developed a model using banks' capitalization as a proxy for their capacity to supply the swaps. If over-the-counter derivatives like interest rate swaps shift onto exchanges, as proposed by the Harkin bill, market participants will be able to trade the products directly, without going through dealers. That means dealers would have less use for Eurodollar futures as a hedging tool, Perfumo said.
"A transfer to Arca is less appealing to these companies than a Nasdaq listing," said Diego Perfumo, analyst at Connecticut-based advisory firm Equity Research Desk. "NYSE's move is to retain companies that fall below US$1.05 from switching," said Perfumo.
“Despite Nasdaq's lower listing fees, few companies have switched from NYSE,” said Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges. “This proves that listings is a branding business and not a commoditized one,” he said. “Portability of the ticker may reduce switching costs, but I do not expect massive switches. Companies are driven by factors beyond costs to select a venue, (such as) the reputation of the venue and peer listings.”
"MF Global is in a position that doesn't leave room for error," said Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Connecticut. “A partnership with Interactive Brokers could be a solution, but it would become a smaller firm with a different business.”
Broker-dealers, who now dominate the CDS market, "will likely give a fraction of the business to each (exchange) participant so that the market remains fragmented," said Diego Perfumo, analyst at Connecticut-based Equity Research Desk. Perfumo said Liffe's Bclear platform could add 13 cents per share to NYSE earnings next year if it can capture 20 percent of the CDS market.
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges, said the rule suspension protects companies with "sound business models that are trading below their fundamental value." "This measure removes additional selling pressures on the stock from institutional investors that have a positive view of the long term prospects but are only allowed to invest in 'listed' companies," Perfumo said.
“The exchange has an advantage in its Eurex Clearing operation,” according to Diego Perfumo, an analyst with Equity Research Desk, of Stamford, Conn. That makes Eurex’s gold contract cheaper for European-based investors to trade, as opposed to products offered on U.S. platforms, he said. Perfumo said interest in commodities exposure, particularly among institutional investors, will continue to grow. He also believes these investors will move toward increased usage of derivatives, putting Eurex’s index-linked offering in a strong position. "We’ve seen more and more demand for commodities over the past five years, based on the inflow of money to commodity indexes," he said. "Now we’re seeing more institutional participation in sophisticated products like futures and options on these indexes."
“The clearinghouse likely would generate $200 million in annual profit for the CME, said analyst Diego Perfumo of Equity Research Desk.”
But previous attempts to shift foreign exchange trading from the OTC to exchanges have failed, demonstrating "how difficult it is for an exchange to shift OTC business without dealers support," said Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges. Still, Citadel has a good track record in competing against dealers, he added. "Citadel has demonstrated its strength to compete against dealers when it captured 20 percent share in Treasuries, an OTC market previously controlled entirely by the 'club' of dealers," Perfumo said. "Citadel may do it again in CDS."
"Deberiamos decir que esto es el catalizador que empujara las operaciones OTC hacia mercados regulados! Dijo Diego Perfumo, analista de Equity Research Desk. "Le muestra a los reguladores que este es el modelo a adoptar en el futuro cuando intenten regular el sistema"
"We may see this is the catalyst that pushes OTC trading on to exchanges," said Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Connecticut-based advisory firm specializing in exchanges. "It shows the regulators that this is the role model to adopt in the future when they look to fix the system."
Analyst Says Bovespa Holding SA, the owner of the Sao Paulo stock exchange, may have a higher market value than Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. after completing a sale of shares to the public later this year, according to Equity Research Desk. “The expectation in Brazil is that the exchange will be one of the leading financial centers and consolidate a good part of Latin American exchanges,” said Bernardo Mariano, an analyst at Equity Research Desk, which has helped investors acquire seats on the exchange over the past two years. ``There is a high level of interest in the share sale.'' While the value of shares traded on Nasdaq is more than 20 times larger than on Bovespa, the Brazilian exchange faces less competition in equity trading than U.S. exchanges, said Diego Perfumo, who is also an analyst at Equity Research Desk. The exchange may benefit from increased volume as investors turn to electronic trading, he said. “What may support the valuation is the combination of these factors,” Perfumo said. “Bovespa is growing very quickly.”
"Because Nasdaq is a big player in the world, there would be a lot of interest among small exchanges to be associated with it," said Bernardo Mariano, an analyst specializing in privately held exchanges at Connecticut-based advisory firm Equity Research Desk. "This would be a great move for Nasdaq to create a beachhead in Eastern Europe, which has been a very hard market to consolidate,“
"Because Nasdaq is a big player in the world, there would be a lot of interest among small exchanges to be associated with it," said Bernardo Mariano, an analyst specializing in privately held exchanges at Connecticut-based advisory firm Equity Research Desk. "This would be a great move for Nasdaq to create a beachhead in Eastern Europe, which has been a very hard market to consolidate,"
“It is possible that the mergers alone could build CME Group revenue. There is tremendous opportunity for the volume in Nymex energy contracts to increase, ” said Diego Perfumo, an analyst for Equity Research Desk. About 6 percent to 8 percent of the Nymex energy volume comes from automatic trades by computer equations, a percentage that should increase to match the 30 percent to 40 percent of CME Group contracts traded through algorithms.
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, pegged the likely number of job cuts at 176, or about 45 percent of the New York workforce, based on a breakdown of CME's projections and NYMEX's expenses. "I think, though, that synergies were understated," Perfumo said. "So the 176 most likely will be higher."
"They are not in immediate danger," said Diego Perfumo, an analyst with Equity Research Desk, who expects the CBOE to float its shares within six months in a $650 million IPO. "But they are not in the driver's seat because competition for options will intensify and the exchanges are consolidating." Some analysts suspect CME may have its eye on the CBOE, but Perfumo argues that CME would pass on it to avoid coming under U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission oversight, leaving NYSE Euronext the most logical candidate. But with its shares off 56 percent in 2008, Perfumo said it won't be in a position to make an acquisition until it finishes integrating Euronext and solves the riddle of its dwindling share of NYSE-listed stock trading, which it is losing to Nasdaq, BATS Trading and Direct Edge in a liberalized market.
“I expect CME to obtain the required 75% quorum from the Nymex members and the majority of the CME and Nymex shareholders’ votes,” said analyst Diego Perfumo at consultant Equity Research Desk.
"I think '75 percent plus one vote' is a great victory. The rest is irrelevant. The CME was able to get a super majority as they presented a strong proposition," said Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk.
Investors vote today in New York and Chicago on the deal, which would cement CME Group as the world's largest derivatives market. Diego Perfumo, who follows exchanges at Equity Research Desk, puts the odds at 90 percent that the Chicago-based company will defeat Nymex members trying to block the merger. “They're going to have the strongest clearinghouse in the world and that's going to help them penetrate the over-the- counter market,” Equity Research's Perfumo said in an interview from his Greenwich, Connecticut, office. “If you're strong, you have better chances in entering the over-the-counter market, especially now with concerns around counterparty risk.”
But analyst Diego Perfumo at consultancy Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Conn., expected tighter regulation of commodities trading to affect OTC trading s well, which could reduce a regulatory discrepancy that currently favors the OTC markets. “The current credit crisis will shift the OTC markets into more effective centrally-cleared exchange venues with no need for bank intermediaries. When the dust settles, exchanges will emerge stronger than ever,” Mr. Perfumo said.
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk, said ICE in particular is vulnerable because it is a pure energy play. "Any negative outcome to the Washington discussions will have a significant impact to their business," Perfumo said.
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Connecticut, said there was now "a very high certainty" that the transaction would go through. "In these market conditions, there was no need for the CME to give any more to the NYMEX shareholders because they don't have any better option," Perfumo said.
Since its launch just over a year ago, rival platform Chi-X has garnered almost 11 per cent market share in some of the LSE's blue-chip stocks, while taking a smaller 5.8 per cent share of some of the names on Euronext, and 6.2 per cent of Deutsche Börse's, according to Equity Research Desk, a New York-based consultancy.
"It's a good deal for Qatar because NYSE Euronext is a strong brand," said Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Connecticut. "There's been a lot of transfer of wealth and the region's exchanges are underdeveloped."
Diego Perfumo, an analyst with Equity Research Desk, said CME's shares had fallen more than those of other exchanges in part because of its higher price-earnings ratio, which makes its stock more vulnerable to an industry slowdown. But he also said the stock was under pressure because of regulatory uncertainty. In February, the U.S. Department of Justice suggested re-examining the lucrative clearing business of futures exchanges, such as the CME.
“The negative rating outlook makes it more difficult for MF to refinance its debt to provide leverage to clients,” Equity Research Desk analyst Diego Perfumo said in an e-mail.
Analyst Diego Perfumo of Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Connecticut, guesses that CME will eventually offer members a price closer to what they are seeking by raising its per-seat offer by about $120,000 and granting new trading rights that could be worth $100,000. Gazeta Mercantil (Brasil), 17 June 2008, “Bolsa do México capta US$ 443 milhões” “O índice de bolsas de valores que tiveram o capital aberto ao público caiu 37% este ano, quatro vezes a queda no índice MSCI das ações mundiais. Não é o melhor momento para as bolsas se tornarem abertas disse Bernardo Mariano, analista que cobre as bolsas no Equity Research Desk, em Greenwihich, Connecticut.
"It's not the best time for exchanges to be going public," said Bernardo Mariano, an analyst covering exchanges at Equity Research Desk LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut.
"It's not the best time for exchanges to be going public," said Bernardo Mariano, an analyst covering exchanges at Equity Research Desk LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut”.
Akciová burza Nasdaq OMX Group má záujem o pražskú burzu. Agentúre Reuters to povedali informované zdroje. Podla niektorých z nich by Nasdaq mohol chciet aj väcšinový podiel, zatial však nie je jasné, ci ponuku na prevzatie skutocne predloží. Majitelia ceskej burzy už dali najavo, že do konca roka možno predajú viac než 90 percent akcií. Záujem prejavujú hlavne európske burzy, napríklad z Viedne ci Varšavy. Hodnota pražskej burzy sa odhaduje na viac než 300 miliónov dolárov. Americká investicná banka Morgan Stanley stanovila horný strop cenového pásma až na 590 miliónov dolárov. „Vzhladom na to, že Nasdaq je vo svete velkým hrácom, nastane velký záujem medzi menšími burzami,“ povedal analytik spolocnosti Equity Research Desk Bernardo Mariano. Prevzatie burzy v Prahe by bol podla neho múdry krok
Diego Perfumo, analyst at financial sector consultant Equity Research Desk, Greenwich, Conn., expects the Persian Gulf exchanges to join forces at some stage, rather than pursuing separate strategies at a time of global consolidation in the exchange sector. “These three markets may want to consider combining efforts, each with a different role: financial derivatives; commodities; and cash equities,” Mr. Perfumo said.
"The NYSE could buy CBOE if the price is right, because CBOE's index options fit in very well," said Diego Perfumo, an analyst with Greenwich, Connecticut-based Equity Research Desk. But ownership of CBOE and its equity options business, would mean U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission oversight, rather than the more accommodating U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That, Perfumo says, is something CME wants to "avoid at all costs." But that point is moot, Perfumo says, because the price for CBOE, even if as low as $3 billion, would force the German exchange to issue shares and be too dilutive. "The CBOE is a stronghold for options and it wouldn't dilute NYSE shares," said Perfumo. "NYSE is the most likely candidate."
Para Diego Perfumo, director de Equity Research Desk, una firma de estudios especializada en bolsas, Brasil supo reaccionar antes que cualquier otro actor en la región, y con el lanzamiento del Novo Mercado comenzó a ofrecer a los accionistas minoritarios el mismo nivel de gobierno corporativo que en Nueva York. “Las empresas ya no necesitan mirar a EE.UU. para decirle al mercado que van a respetar al accionista minoritario. Pueden listarse en Brasil”, dice. Perfumo cree que los ADR se están volviendo un producto obsoleto. Y señala como prueba que en 2006 hubo 26 salidas a bolsa en Bovespa y sólo cuatro de ADR latinoamericanos. En 2007, la cifra en la bolsa brasileña subió a 45 mientras que de ADR latinoamericanos se mantuvo en cuatro “En Brasil veremos una repatriación de los ADR, al igual que ha sido la tendencia de los ADR europeos. Además, hay empresas latinoamericanas que están estudiando listar en São Paulo”, dice Perfumo. Entre los registros de la Commissão de Valores Mobiliarios se puede leer que la argentina Solvay Indupa está estudiando listar acciones en aquella bolsa, y que la también argentina Banco Patagonia levantó 180 millones de reales (US$ 108 millones) en una colocación en julio del año pasado.
“Nymex should accept the CME offer as the company is worth more with the CME than stand-alone,” said analyst Diego Perfumo at financial sector consultant Equity Research Desk, Greenwich, Conn. “I do not think the CME needs to raise its share bid, but it will need to raise it to trading right-holders. I expect the CME to raise the cash to those holders from $612,000 to $750,000.”
“The increased volatility has pushed the CME to raise margins and that makes it costly to hold these open-interest positions. People trade on a shorter timeframe nowadays,” said analyst Diego Perfumo at the consultancy Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Conn. “There is no direct correlation between trading volumes and open interest. Drawing any conclusion out of that is taking a very short-term view of the value of the CME,” Mr. Perfumo added.
The all-electronic CSX could be attractive to other exchanges despite its small size, according to Diego Perfumo,
an analyst at Equity Research Desk of Greenwich, Conn. But Perfumo thinks the number of suitors is limited. He sees BATS Trading and the Toronto Stock Exchange
The combined company will have a market value of about $20.5 billion, according to Diego Perfumo, an analyst who follows exchanges at Equity Research Desk in Greenwich, Connecticut. Only Germany's Deutsche Boerse AG, with $32.9 billion, and Chicago- based CME Group Inc., valued at $26.8 billion, are bigger, according to Bloomberg data.
"Las bolsas de menor tamaño deben combinarse para no quedar marginadas", señala Diego Perfumo, socio de la firma de estudios de bolsas Equity Research Desk. Perfumo agrega que una bolsa totalmente integrada y con un solo cuerpo de reguladores podría eventualmente captar el interés de otros actores regionales, como la Bolsa de Santiago, lo cual podría crear de paso un actor con el mismo tamaño que la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Pero ni sueñen con alcanzar a Bovespa-BM&F. La capitalización de mercado de Brasil representa tres veces y medio la de México.
Diego Perfumo is a partner at Equity Research Desk, a US research company. Perfumo said: "You either become part of a larger entity or you become irrelevant... Sao Paulo is going to be so big, it will have to lead the roll-up."
"Owning the top of book yourself is critical in a Regulation NMS environment," says Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk, an investment advisory firm based in Greenwich, CT. "The ability to get executed depends on the speed of access to the top of book." The importance of fast access to protected quotes has driven the biggest exchange groups, with which BATS competes, "to accumulate tops of books" by acquiring other exchanges, according to Perfumo. Nasdaq, for example, bought the Boston and Philadelphia stock exchanges, and NYSE Euronext owns Arca and will soon add the American Stock Exchange to its roster. Equity Research Desk's Perfumo expects BATS to compete with the NYSE, Nasdaq and NYSE Arca based on speed and pricing. But he says there's a ceiling on the market share BATS is likely to acquire. "There is a segment of the market interested in the BATS offering, but it's limited," he says. "It's stayed around 8 or 9 percent, even with inverted pricing. That segment of fast high-frequency traders will continue to use BATS for the rebates."
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk LLC, an advisory firm that specializes in exchanges, has played down the latest speculation. "I am skeptical about this talk. There are very few global exchanges that would be in a position to bid for ICE," he said. Deutsche Bourse and the Hong Kong Exchange are very unlikely to make such a move, as the synergies with ICE could be questioned. He also said the timing now was not right for trans-Atlantic exchange NYSE Euronext. The NYSE, which can justify a strategic fit, may be able to buy it cheaper later, he said.
A deal between CME Group and Nymex may help draw investors to the new contracts, said Diego Perfumo, an analyst who follows exchanges at Equity Research Desk. Nymex said today the Colombian peso contract may get listed on the CME's Globex electronic market. “It's attractive because the region is anchored to the dollar and futures allow people to hedge that risk,” said Perfumo, who is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. "It's going to take a long time for these products to develop liquidity, but someone has to start."
“Trading volumes will keep growing if we continue to have this sort of volatility,'' Diego Perfumo, an analyst at Equity Research Desk, a Greenwich, Connecticut-based investment adviser. ``But in a recessionary environment, smaller companies are the ones that suffer the most and initial public offerings from that segment may disappear. Nasdaq could have a harder time.'' NYSE Euronext's planned purchase of the American Stock Exchange may make it harder for Nasdaq to lure initial public offerings from smaller companies, said Equity Desk's Perfumo. It may also make it difficult for Nasdaq to extend its gains in market share trading Amex-listed stocks.
Diego Perfumo, analyst at Equity Research Desk LLC, an advisory firm that specializes in exchanges, said “Thursday's deal means NYSE Euronext is acquiring about 700 more stock listings in the second tier market”. Perfumo said “these smaller and medium-size companies will give NYSE a starting point to compete with Nasdaq in the smaller-sized IPO market”.
"Essas duas coisas são muito importantes para que nós possamos atrair investidores institucionais estrangeiros."A Nymex está mantendo negociações exclusivas para ser adquirida, por cerca de US$ 11 bilhões, pelo CME Group Inc., que domina a negociação de contratos futuros de câmbio e taxas de juros nas Américas. O CME Group também está se expandindo na América Latina por meio de uma parceria com a brasileira Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros.A concretização de um negócio entre o CME Group e a Nymex poderá ajudar a atrair investidores para os novos contratos, disse Diego Perfumo, analista que cobre bolsas na Equity Research Desk. "Esse é um negócio atraente porque a região é atrelada ao dólar e os contratos futuros permitem que as pessoas se protejam contra esse risco", disse Perfumo, que trabalha em Greenwich, no Estado norte-americano de Connecticut. "Vai levar muito tempo para esses produtos desenvolverem liquidez, mas alguém tem que começar."Brasil, México e Argentina.
"Los mercados de capital brasileños se convertirían en unos de los más fuertes del mundo en caso de que se fusionen", asegura Diego Perfumo, socio de la consultora financiera estadounidense Equity Research Desk LLC.
"The Brazilian capital markets would be one of the strongest in the world if they merge," said Diego Perfumo, a partner at financial-advisory firm Equity Research Desk LLC. Since about 60% to 70% of BM&F's shares are already in the hands of the same local brokerage houses that control Bovespa, analysts say chances of a link-up are good. "The rationale is there, the interest of the members is there and willingness of the regulators and financial community is there," said Mr. Perfumo.
“Executives at rival exchanges called the IPO price steep, but Brazil's climbing market put many big investors in a position where they "don't want to miss the boat," says Bernardo Mariano, a partner at financial-advisory firm Equity Research Desk.
Bloomberg, 4 May 2007 -- Interactive Brokers Share Offer Raises $1.2 Billion
``They are a great player in the U.S. options market, and the company is a reflection of the growth in the market,'' said analyst Diego Perfumo at Equity Research Desk, an investment advisory firm based in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``It's a bet on the growth of the market, with some risk because of the company's market-making unit.''
Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2007, “In CBOT Fight, It All Adds Up To Derivatives”
To understand what's at stake in the takeover battle for the Chicago Board of Trade, consider this:
The global business of derivatives -- investment contracts based on everything from how much snow Colorado will get next year to the likelihood that General Motors will default on its debts -- has grown by nearly 30% a year for the past four years. Last year, the value of those financial contracts exceeded $450 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
The old-fashioned stock and bond markets pale in comparison, totaling about $40 trillion and $65 trillion, respectively.
’Derivatives are creations; the volumes depend on innovation and imagination,’ says Diego Perfumo, an exchange consultant. Stocks are limited by the growth of the economy, but ‘with derivatives, skies are the limit.’